Strange. Somehow I have the feeling that in 10 years, today (March 26th of 2006) will be seen as "The day that marks Microsoft decline". Read minimsft blog, including (most) of the comments. It's an insiders blog with insiders comments. Yes, they are anonymous but clearly (ex) MSFT people.
Social trends are easy to predict. Just take a look at students and gays. They pick up these social trends or even make them before they go mainstream. This holds true for TV shows, clothing etc.
Technical trends are easy to predict. Just take a look at youngsters and opensource people. They pick up these trends or even make them before they go mainstream. This holds true for the OS they use (MAC, Linux) and stuff they do (first the internet, now web 2.0)
And now read the Mini MSFT blog again. And look around on where the innovations starts and what the people that are the core of this innovation do. They organise themselves, coordinate successful summits, use powerbooks, make rich internet applications and work for Google.
Strange. Somehow I have the feeling that in 10 years, today (March 26th of 2006) will be seen as "The day that marks Microsoft decline".